Next Steps on Iran Military Conflict

A few years ago, during one of our frequent neighborhood walks, my wife and I noticed a large, partially completed house. It was well on the way to becoming a beautiful addition to the neighborhood. We assumed that construction had paused pending delivery of necessary building materials. But after a few weeks of construction inactivity, we knew that there must be other considerations involved. Sure enough, we learned that the owner of the property had experienced some major personal financial setbacks and would be unable to complete construction of the house and would need to find someone else to purchase the property and complete the construction of the house. This experience was surely both disappointing and embarrassing for the property owner. In Luke 14:28-32 Jesus discussed the need for adequate preparation before undertaking either a major building project or a military campaign and the ridicule which would result if the preparation turned out to be deficient and the undertaking was required to be discontinued.

I believe it is fair to say that, in some way, the military campaign undertaken by the United States and Israel against Iran has reached the stage where it is clear the initial preparations for the military campaign were incomplete. Perhaps a more delicate description of the current situation is captured by the quote attributed to Prussian Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke the Elder and Prussian General Carl von Clausewitz: “No plan survives first contact with the enemy.”

While the United States and Israel have enjoyed tremendous success in largely destroying the Iranian naval, air force and other military infrastructure, the remaining asymmetrical military capabilities of Iran with drones, some ballistic missiles, and small war boats have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping with oil and fertilizer held hostage. Could this response from Iran have been anticipated by the United States and in some way addressed in the planning and preparations for the military campaign against Iran? This topic will certainly be hotly debated in coming days.

Even though the Unites States has imposed an effective naval blockade which largely prevents Iran from shipping and selling its oil, Iran seems content to “wait out” the United States as the price of gasoline, diesel fuel, and fertilizer skyrockets and United States domestic political pressure builds. So, what is the appropriate next step for the Trump Administration to take at this point in the military campaign stalemate which yields neither peace nor war? Unlike the property owner in the story above who did not have the financial wherewithal to complete the house, the Trump Administration does have the means for the successful completion of the military campaign in Iran. The best analysis I have read to date comes from former United States United Nations Ambassador John Bolton in a recent Washington Post Op-ed article.  https://wapo.st/4upDWB7. Briefly stated, Ambassador Bolton believes the Trump Administration has only two viable options for next steps. Option one would entail the full resumption of the military campaign to destroy the remaining Iranian military and petroleum infrastructure to persuade Iran to agree to a favorable settlement for the military campaign. The second option to consider for a successful conclusion to the military campaign would involve opening the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping with American naval and air power escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz and destroying any Iranian military assets which oppose this action. I will add a third and I believe most unattractive option which I trust will not be considered: Declare victory over Iran now and withdraw all United States military assets from the Persian Gulf and leave the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf states and NATO. In my opinion, that would be a humiliating and cowardly response which would embolden Iran; demoralize American allies among the Gulf States; and send a message to China, Russia, and North Korea that the United States does not have the stomach or the political courage to persevere and finish a military campaign when faced with difficult challenges.

In conclusion, any leader must understand that any major project will experience unforeseen challenges which must be addressed if any worthy project is to be completed. This is especially true for the Trump Administration in its military campaign against Iran. As former boxing heavy weight champion Mike Tyson once famously observed, “Everyone has a plan until getting punched in the face!” It is indeed fair to question whether the United States should have undertaken the military campaign against Iran, but it did so and must now finish it in an honorable manner. Let’s pray that the Trump Administration will act in a way that protects the best interests of the United States, Israel, and its allies among the Gulf states.

God bless you and thank you for the privilege of your time in reading my blog.

Ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz.