It's Always Been the Economy Stupid!

“It’s the economy stupid!” Many of my readers will remember this famous phrase uttered by James Carville, the sagacious and always vulgar and profane Democratic party-political strategist, during the 1992 Presidential Election campaign between President George HW Bush and Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas.

For historical context, beginning in January 1991 President Bush had led the U.S. and other allied nations in Desert Storm, a successful air and ground military campaign offensive against Iraq and its dictator Sadam Hussein to force Iraq to withdraw after attacking and occupying neighboring Kuwait. The invasion was repelled by the end of February 1991, and Iraq sustained a humiliating military defeat. Bush’s popularity approval rating soared to over 70%. Most pundits deemed Bush a shoe in for reelection in 1992, but this was not to be the case. In late 1991 and early 1992, the U.S. economy turned sour along with Bush’s approval rating. One key factor in the economic slowdown was Bush’s decision to endorse an income tax increase with Democratic leaders in Congress in exchange for budget spending cuts. As it turned out, the tax increase became law, but the Democratic Congressional leaders did not follow through with the budget spending cuts and Bush paid the political price for this half-fulfilled bargain.

As Bill Clinton’s chief political strategist, Carville captured the sentiment of many voters during the 1992 Presidential Campaign with the memorable phrase about the importance of the economy which politicians in both parties have replayed countless times in subsequent elections, including the recent 2026 mid-term elections which resulted in historic Democratic party success in Congress, Governorships, and State Legislative races. To be sure, my politics and Biblical worldview are very different from Carville’s, but I share his view that the condition of the economy will always be an important, if not determinative, issue for U.S. elections.

Moreover, I would argue that the importance of the economy has loomed large in prior election cycles, such as the 1932 Presidential Election between Franklin Roosevelt and Hubert Hoover. It was also a huge factor in the 1980 Presidential election between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. Does anyone recall Reagan’s famous question in the debate with Carter when Reagan asked the American people to consider if they were better off now financially than they were four years ago? They answered emphatically by giving Reagan a landslide popular vote and electoral college election victory.

While it is interesting to discuss the importance of the economy as a key factor in U.S. elections, I would maintain that the condition of the economy has always been a compelling issue for any civilization and its leaders. For anyone who has doubts about this, let me take you to the Books of Genesis and Exodus in the Old Testament. Genesis Chapters 37-50 details the remarkable story of how a Jewish young man named Joseph came to Egypt under most unusual circumstances and was later made Prime Minister by the Egyptian King. Joseph skillfully positioned Egypt to survive and prosper during a devastating famine. Joseph was also able to bring his family from Israel to Egypt during this time. Joseph’s efforts in overcoming the famine and developing a thriving economy made him an iconic hero for the Egyptians and ultimately for his family that migrated to Egypt and greatly multiplied there. Make no mistake, the economy was important.

The story of Moses in the Book of Exodus in chapters 1-17 relates a different story in the life of the Jewish leader Moses. Following the death of Joseph, a new King assumed the throne in Egypt who did not know the work and service of Joseph. This new King persecuted the greatly multiplied Jewish people and placed them in forced labor. God brought forth a talented young man named Moses to protect and ultimately rescue the Jewish people from the persecution undertaken by the Egyptian King Pharoah. Moses succeeded in this effort but was subjected to harsh and unrelenting criticism from the Jewish people he was leading because he did not satisfy their material desires for food, water, and other amenities as promptly as they wished. Make no mistake, the economy was important.

So, what can we learn from the accounts of Joseph and Moses in the Old Testament and national elections in the U.S?  I believe the lesson is very clear. Human nature has an unsatiable and unrelenting desire for economic security and material prosperity. Plentiful food, water, shelter, and healthcare at low cost are paramount in the minds of people in every generation since time began. What does this message mean for leaders? While no leader of any democratic nation should ever become singularly focused on economic issues impacting the country, any leader who fails to make economic security for the nation’s citizens a top priority will soon find himself/herself in an unpopular position which may threaten the chance for reelection and the ability to continue to serve and accomplish other important objectives as an elected leader. Let a word to the wise be sufficient: It’s always been the economy stupid! 

God bless you and thank you for the privilege of your time in reading my blog.

•