Can President Trump Avoid the Rehoboam Trap?

During their recent Summit in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned President Trump of the need to avoid the “Thucydides Trap”. This warning was based on the historical question of whether a rising and ascendent nation and an established nation can co-exist as equal partners and avoid conflict which often occurs. One should be forgiven if this admonition is viewed as more of a self-serving demand for the United States to refrain from taking any economic or military action which would serve to hinder China’s growing influence in the Asia Pacific region as the ascendant power or interfere with China’s desire to threaten, intimidate, and eventually take control of Taiwan. I think that most Americans and Chinese alike would like to see both countries act in a way which would avoid any full-scale military conflict between the two countries. But my sense is that the Chinese and American leaders would find it difficult to agree on what each country should do to avoid economic and military conflict.

While it makes sense for the Trump Administration to consider and take seriously how it will respond to the Thucydides Trap, I would argue that the greatest challenge for the Trump Administration today is to avoid the “Rehoboam Trap.” So, what do I mean by this reference to the “Rehoboam Trap?” For that explanation, it is necessary to go to the Old Testament book of I Kings Chapter 12. Briefly stated, this Scripture describes the unfortunate turn of events when Israel’s King Solomon died and was succeeded as King by his son Rehoboam. Following his coronation as King, Rehoboam sought the counsel of both the “establishment” leaders who had advised his father and the younger “aspiring” leaders who were his contemporaries. The older establishment advisors urged King Rehoboam to proceed thoughtfully and with words and actions of appreciation to his countrymen to reassure them and secure their confidence and support for his Kingship. Conversely, the young aspiring advisors urged him to be bold, aggressive, and make it clear to his countryman that he was in charge and expected their complete and total support of his Kingship or face the consequences if they did not. Regrettably, King Rehoboam took the advice of the young aspiring advisors and spoke harshly to his countryman. At this, his countryman rebelled and withdrew their support, and the nation of Israel was divided. Ten tribes of the nation of Israel moved under a new Kingship led by an adversary of Rehoboam. Rehoboam was left with only the tribes of Judah and Benjamin for his Kingship and his Kingship was constantly in the military crosshairs with the other ten tribes and other adjacent countries.

In my opinion, the story of King Rehoboam is a very apt description of where things stand now with the Trump Administration. Up to now, the Republican majority in the U.S. Senate and House has largely supported the major provisions of the Trump Administration’s agenda such as the confirmation by the Senate of controversial Cabinet candidates; the “Big Beautiful Bill” tax legislation; chaotic immigration enforcement policy; on again and off again tariffs; the military action in Venezuela to accomplish the apprehension of fugitive Nicolas Madura; Operation Epic Fury in Iran; and the naval blockade and economic sanctions against Cuba. These are just a few of the important Trump Administration initiatives which the Republican majorities in the U.S. House and Senate have supported.

But now things seem to be taking a dark and unfortunate turn on policy initiatives and political calculations by the Trump Administration. Consider just a few of the following: Endorsed a character flawed candidate for the U.S. Senate in Texas who then defeated the solid and respected incumbent Republican Senator John Cronyn in the Republican Primary which has placed the Senate seat in play for the November election; primaried and defeated U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy following the endorsement of a little known Congresswoman who only recently backed away from her support of DEI; made numerous threats to “primary” other incumbent Republican Congressman and Senators if they fail to demonstrate sufficient loyalty to the President and his policy initiatives;  primaried and defeated a half dozen Indiana state legislators who were unwilling to fall in line and pursue gerrymandering redistricting of Indiana Congressional Districts even though their constituents opposed this by a 10-1 margin; orchestrated a settlement of litigation against the IRS in which the President is in essence both the Plaintiff and Defendant in the litigation which calls for the establishment of an almost $2B Victim Compensation Fund to compensate persons wronged by the U.S. Government  (almost certain to be allies of the President) with the fund to be administered by five individuals which the President can remove without cause; and made frequent “false alarm” social media posts announcing numerous proposed “almost  complete” settlements of hostilities in Epic Fury which would guarantee that Iran would never have a nuclear weapon. We can all hope and pray that the latest development with a Memorandum of Agreement to extend the Cease Fire for 60 days bares more fruit.

So, who is advising President Trump on these recent policy and political initiatives? Is it White House Communications Director Steven Cheung who recently excoriated former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo for his thoughtful criticism of one of the latest “almost complete” Epic Fury peace settlement proposals, and the same Mr. Cheung who recently posted on social media “Do not ever doubt President Trump and his political power. F____ around, find out.” Is it White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller who was one of the principal architects of the immigration chaos in the streets of Minneapolis several months ago? Or is President Trump himself acting on impulse and whim and ignoring any sage counsel offered by the few establishment figures in his administration such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, and CIA Director John Radcliffe? Either way, the Trump Administration is not being well served.

So, what happens next for the Trump Administration? For starters, President Trump must deal with the YOLOL (You Only Live Once!) Caucus of outgoing Republican Senators for the next seven months. After this week’s primary defeat, Senator Jon Cornyn joins Sen. Bill Cassidy, who also lost a recent primary election. They in turn join Sen. Thom Tillis who isn’t running for re-election and has been needling President Trump for the last several months.  Add Sen. Mitch McConnell who is retiring, and Sen. Susan Collins and Sen. Lisa Murkowski---who have opposed President Trump multiple times and seem Teflon coated from his ire---and you’ve got the YOLO Caucus who have nothing to lose and are free to think and act independently from the President’s policy and voting demands. But the YOLO Caucus may turn out to be the least of the President’s concerns if the outcome of the mid-term election results in the loss of the Republican majority in the House and a loss of the Republican majority in the Senate. If this occurs, you can be assured of the following: Impeachment proceeding 3.0; the end of the ability to pass any type of meaningful legislation through Congress; and the inability to secure the Senate confirmation of conservative judicial candidates and cabinet nominees. Is this a desirable outcome for the last two years of the Trump Presidency?  

Mr. President, I know your political instincts are solid. So, let me ask you this question: How successful will the last two years of your administration be and how will your legacy be impacted if Evangelical Christians, actively practicing Roman Catholics, and observant Jews are frustrated and “stay home” in the November mid-term election in much the same way as King Rehoboam’s countryman stayed home and moved on from him? I hope you will prayerfully consider this question.

God bless you and thank you for the privilege of your time in reading my blog.

King Rehoboam of Israel Confering With His Advisors